ESPNET SportsZone: Series analysis: Bulls in a runaway

Series analysis: Bulls in a runaway

By Fred Carter
Special to ESPNET SportsZone

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P.J. Brown says this series was a goal for Miami.
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Michael Jordan has complete confidence.
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Tim Hardaway: No team is in better shape than Miami.
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Jackson knows Pat Riley's name won't be in a box score.
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Frontcourt: Advantage Chicago
Chicago is at a disadvantage only at the center spot, with Alonzo Mourning versus Luc Longley. Zo, however, generally overpowers guys physically, and he's not going to be able to do that to Longley -- that is, if Longley can keep himself out of foul trouble long enough.

Mourning is a power forward playing center. That means his size comes down a notch, which gives guys such as Brian Williams the opportunity to guard him. If Alonzo guards Williams, Mourning could get into foul trouble again.

SEASON SERIES

Nov. 6: Bulls 106, Heat 100
Michael Jordan scored 50 points and Dennis Rodman had 22 rebounds.
Nov. 13: Bulls 103, Heat 71
Jordan and Toni Kukoc combined for 54 points; Rodman had 19 boards.
Dec. 7: Heat 83, Bulls 80
Dan Majerle hit the game-winner, handing the Bulls a rare home loss.
April 16: Heat 102, Bulls 92
With Rodman and Kukoc injured, Chicago couldn't keep pace.

At the forward spots, both are an advantage for Chicago. Dennis Rodman is the superior rebounder and superior defensive player over P.J. Brown and, of course, we all know there's a big difference between Scottie Pippen and Miami's Dan Majerle and Jamal Mashburn.

Backcourt: Advantage Chicago

Chicago has the advantage in the backcourt not only because of Michael Jordan, but because of Ron Harper, Steve Kerr and Randy Brown as well.

Harper will play Tim Hardaway. Jordan will help out, but it will be Harper's primary responsibility. Jordan will play Voshon Lenard, obviously a huge advantage for the Bulls.

You look at it and it's such a lopsided mismatch defensively because the Bulls have so many guys who can guard Hardaway. And the other guys can afford to deny themselves offensive opportunities just to guard him, and that makes it a simpler mission.

Bench: Advantage Chicago

Again, Kerr coming off the bench, Williams coming off the bench, Toni Kukoc coming off the bench -- those three guys are formidable, so the bench obviously favors Chicago.

The Heat will bring Willie Anderson off the bench defensively -- if that means anything. He's not going to score any points. And I don't see either Majerle or Mashburn making much of an impact.

Ike Austin won't have that much of an impact either; he might get 12 points and eight rebounds in a 30-minute stint, but I don't know how much of a difference that will make.

Defense: Advantage Chicago

Miami is a good defensive team in terms of rotating, helping and recovering. But Miami is a team that gives up transition baskets and offensive rebounds. Chicago is very good in both of those areas.

Miami is a team that will turn the ball over, too. A lot of those weaknesses fall right into the Bulls' hands.

Three-point shooting: Advantage Chicago

You have Jordan, Kerr, Kukoc and Pippen versus Hardaway, Lenard, Majerle and Mashburn. That's interesting because Michael has not shot the 3-pointer well the entire playoffs. The only consistent great 3-point shooter out there is Kerr.

Hardaway is such a streak shooter and Lenard can't seem to find the range. I give the slight edge to Chicago because you know Michael is going to come out of his mini-slump.

Overall: Chicago in five

It's a possible sweep. Miami really has to win Game 1. The last thing it wants is for Chicago to win Game 1, then go into Game 2 with confidence and go down 0-2. Then, you better win Game 3. I think Games 1 and 3 are the big ones for Miami.

If Miami is hot and and the Bulls play below their ability level, then you have an interesting series. But if Chicago does not play down and both teams play at their best level, then we can draw the line and see where Miami has no chance because of the talent margin.